Initiated 2026-09-28 · Price $151.77 (close 2026-09-25, stockanalysis.com) · Mkt cap $6.84bn as-converted (45.08mm fully-diluted shares incl. partnership units; $6.12bn on stockanalysis's 40.92mm) · Financials / investment banking & advisory · Model: verified

Rating: Hold — Conviction: Medium

PJT is the top-ranked restructuring adviser and is coming off a record first half: revenue +24%, adjusted pretax +39%, no funded debt. The problem is that the record sits on a peak in liability-management work, and the stock already pays the richest forward multiple in its peer group for it. The price sits just below the model's base case, with roughly equal room to the bull and bear cases. That is a Hold. The call breaks on whether strategic advisory can carry growth when restructuring stops rising.

Model value range vs price
Bear $81.70Base $160.28Bull $234.66Price $151.77

Business overview

PJT sells advice and capital raising, not balance sheet. FY2025 revenue was $1,713.7mm:

Three variables drive earnings:

Competition

Bull case

  1. Strategic advisory carries growth. Mandates are up more than 20% and management calls the franchise "early days". Q2 revenue beat consensus by ~16%. Plays out if sponsor exits and strategic M&A keep recovering through 2027 while restructuring holds up. Model: rev_growth
  2. Operating leverage. Non-comp fell to 12.8% of revenue in H1 2026 from 14.3%, and the adjusted comp ratio fell a point to 66.5%. Revenue growing faster than the ~14% non-comp guide lifts margin toward the mid-20s. Plays out if revenue growth stays in double digits. Model: ebitda_margin
  3. The multiple is earned. Restructuring and secondaries are structurally growing, and less cyclical, fee pools. Plays out if PJT holds its No. 1 restructuring ranking through a normalization. Model: exit_ev_ebitda, terminal_growth

Bear case

  1. Restructuring peaks. 2026 is a record year for liability-management work. If defaults stay low and the refinancing wall is handled, that line normalizes while M&A stays slow under a 5%+ 10Y. Plays out if H2 2026 revenue is flat on H2 2025 ($981.6mm) and 2027 declines. Model: rev_growth
  2. Cost creep. Non-comp growth was raised to ~14% on office expansion in New York and London, travel, senior advisers and AI infrastructure. The 66.5% comp ratio leaves little room if revenue slows. Plays out if the adjusted pretax margin falls back toward FY2023's level (EBITDA margin 18.8%). Model: ebitda_margin
  3. The premium closes. PJT trades at 18.2x forward against a peer average of 15.6x. A normalizing restructuring cycle removes the reason for the gap. Plays out if 2027 revenue lands below the $2.17bn consensus. Model: exit_ev_ebitda, terminal_growth

Valuation & balance sheet

Metric (definition) Current Own history (range or 5y avg) Peers Source, as-of
Forward P/E (consensus adjusted EPS) 18.2x n/a (unverified) Evercore 13.6x · Moelis 16.6x · Houlihan Lokey 16.5x stockanalysis.com, 2026-09-28
EV/EBITDA, model basis (EV $6,307mm = as-converted market cap − $535mm cash and short-term investments; no funded debt; leases excluded) 16.9x FY2025 · 14.7x TTM EBITDA margin FY2021–FY2025 18.8–25.8% n/a (peers show no EBITDA on this source) model-inputs.json; Q2 2026 release
EV/Sales (TTM, aggregator EV) 3.39x n/a (unverified) Evercore 2.26x · Moelis 3.06x · Houlihan Lokey 3.47x stockanalysis.com, 2026-09-28
P/FCF (TTM, aggregator Class A market cap) 9.4x FCF $118mm (FY2021) to $528mm (FY2024) Evercore 6.6x · Moelis 11.0x · Houlihan Lokey 18.6x (bonus-timing sensitive) stockanalysis.com, 2026-09-28

Model-implied value range (from model-summary.json; generic module, Gordon-growth DCF and exit-EV/EBITDA DCF, midpoints): Bear $81.70 · Base $160.28 · Bull $234.66 per share, i.e. implied returns of −46.2% / +5.6% / +54.6% vs $151.77. These ranges show how the bull and bear drivers translate into value; they are not price targets.

Balance sheet:

Model note: tier full, status built, verification verified (3,206 formula cells matched in LibreOffice). No assumptions without basis. Scenario consistency is OK on all 14 rows.

Scenario stress test

Reasoned from the bull/bear drivers above. The model column comes from the scenario overlays (Base case + shock).

Scenario Effect Mechanism Magnitude Model Δ value vs Base ($/sh)
S1 Fast equity crash − M&A signings pause while valuations reset; restructuring untouched without a recession; financials de-rate Med −$15.25
S2 Slow bear / recession − M&A and placement fees fall; restructuring rises but bills late. Much milder than Base − Bear ($78.57) because it lasts two years and restructuring cushions it, while the bear case is restructuring normalizing with M&A stuck High −$29.61
S3 Rapid rate shock − Costlier financing slows sponsor M&A; higher discount rate; liability-management demand offsets part Med −$20.65
S4 Slow rate grind − Higher discount rate; slower M&A roughly offset by liability-management work Low −$7.39
S5 Soft-landing cuts + Cheaper financing converts the M&A backlog and helps fundraising; restructuring cools High +$25.12
S6 Recession-driven cuts − M&A falls; restructuring cushions most of it; lower discount rate nearly offsets Low −$0.27
S7a Credit liquidity shock − Financing markets shut and closings slip; restructuring bills later Low −$9.47
S7b Slow default cycle + No. 1 restructuring franchise adds fees without an M&A collapse Med +$10.65
S8 Stagflation − Uncertainty delays M&A and fundraising over three years; higher discount rate Med −$20.77
S9a Dollar spike − London and European fees translate lower Low −$0.66
S9b Dollar slide + Mirror of S9a Low +$0.66
S10 Melt-up + Rising valuations and tight spreads drive M&A and secondaries; financials re-rate Med +$14.87
S11 Energy supply shock − Buyers delay signing; stressed energy users add some restructuring work Low −$4.77
S12 Mega-cap/AI derating − Tech M&A slows; software pressure creates strategic-alternatives and secondaries work that offsets part Low −$5.92

Currently active/on watch per the playbook: S3 is partially active per state.md, and the 2026-09-25 macro log shows all three legs met (10Y 5.17%). S3 costs PJT $20.65 in the model. S8, S10 and S11 are on watch.

Model value change vs Base, by scenario
S2 Slow bear / recession−$29.61S8 Stagflation−$20.77S3 Rapid rate shock−$20.65S1 Fast equity crash−$15.25S7a Credit liquidity shock−$9.47S4 Slow rate grind−$7.39S12 Mega-cap/AI derating−$5.92S11 Energy supply shock−$4.77S9a Dollar spike−$0.66S6 Recession-driven cuts−$0.27S9b Dollar slide+$0.66S7b Slow default cycle+$10.65S10 Melt-up+$14.87S5 Soft-landing cuts+$25.12

What would change the call

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