Initiated 2026-10-25 · Price $16.35 (close 2026-10-23, stockanalysis.com) · Mkt cap $3.29bn · Real estate / upper-upscale and luxury lodging REIT · Model: verified

Rating: Hold — Conviction: High

Park's 2026 is going better than planned. Q2 comparable RevPAR rose 5.8%, guidance went up, and the $1.275bn Hilton Hawaiian Village mortgage was refinanced on time. The stock already prices that in, though. Once a realistic capex reserve is deducted, recurring cash flow is about $1.28 a share. The price sits on the Base case. The upside depends on private buyers paying more for its hotels than the market does, and that is offset by a 2027 that looks flat for the industry and a debt stack now costing ~6%. That makes it a Hold.

Conviction tests (3a-v-c): T1 pass (Base −0.5% at +1pp, +2.8% at −1pp; Hold at both) · T2 pass (NAV alone +14.9%, AFFO DCF alone −12.6%; Hold on either) · T3 pass (one est. input, the Hilton Orlando JV in other_claims, moves Base 1.8%) · T4 pass (no single pending event >25%)

Model value range vs price
Bear $11.07Base $16.53Bull $22.24Price $16.35

Business overview

Park owns 30 upper-upscale and luxury hotels with 21,326 rooms. Most carry Hilton brands. Twenty-one Core hotels (17,213 rooms) make up the business that stays. The other nine are Non-Core hotels being sold or exited.

Value is concentrated in a few large resorts and convention boxes:

Three variables drive earnings:

Competition

Bull case

  1. ROI projects plus group pace. Royal Palm targets a 15–20% return. Bonnet Creek's RevPAR is up 13%. Group rooms revenue rose 9.5% in Q2, and 2027 group pace is up double digits in key markets. Plays out if 2027 travel demand holds after the World Cup. Model: ss_noi_growth
  2. Private values above public. The four Non-Core hotels sold after Q1 cleared at 13.7x 2025 EBITDA, including avoided capex. Today's price implies ~10.4x Base Y1 Hotel Adjusted EBITDA (~9.6% cap rate). Plays out if hotel transaction markets stay open with the 10Y near 5%. Model: cap_rate, terminal_p_affo
  3. A cleaner, lower-capex portfolio. Selling the remaining Non-Core hotels removes old boxes and their capex. Plays out if the six targeted sales close near the 13.7x pace. Model: acq_noi, recurring_capex_pct_noi

Bear case

  1. 2027 normalization. The World Cup comp drops out. The Ali'i Tower renovation (~$100mm, started Q3 2026) displaces rooms at Hilton Hawaiian Village. Jet fuel at Brent ~$117 (macro log 2026-10-24) raises airfares into Hawaii and Orlando. In FY2025, comparable Hotel Adjusted EBITDA fell 5.3% on comparable RevPAR down only 2.0%, so small top-line misses magnify. Plays out if S2, S6 or S11 arrives. Model: ss_noi_growth
  2. The refinancing reset. The 2016 Hilton Hawaiian Village mortgage was replaced with $1.3bn of new draws. The 2028 ($725mm, 5.875%) and 2029 ($750mm, 4.875%) notes refinance into a 5% 10Y. Plays out if S3 or S4 persists. Model: cost_of_debt
  3. Dispositions dilute. Non-Core sales at ~10x, or a Safehold lease loss, take EBITDA out faster than they cut debt. Plays out if the transaction market shuts. Model: acq_noi
  4. Capex keeps eating the cash. Big convention boxes keep needing ROI-scale spend. Plays out if capex stays near 2025–2026 levels ($230–300mm). The $1.00 dividend is ~78% of Base Y1 AFFO, and Bear Y2 AFFO ($0.86) does not cover it. Model: recurring_capex_pct_noi, cap_rate, terminal_p_affo

Valuation & balance sheet

Metric (definition) Current Own history (range or 5y avg) Peers Source, as-of
EV/EBITDA (TTM, aggregator, lease-inclusive) 11.2x · ~11.3x model basis (EV $6.86bn / FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA $609mm) n/a (unverified) HST 12.3x · PEB 13.8x · DRH 13.1x · XHR 13.3x stockanalysis.com, 2026-10-23
P/Adjusted FFO (company definition, no capex deducted) 8.4x FY2026 guidance midpoint ($1.95) Adj. FFO $2.04 (2023), $2.06 (2024), $1.97 (2025) HST 11.7x · XHR 11.8x P/FFO (PEB, DRH n/a) Q2 2026 / Q4 releases; stockanalysis 2026-10-23
Implied cap rate on Hotel Adjusted EBITDA (Base Y1 / model EV) ~9.6% Non-Core sales at 13.7x (~7.3%) n/a (not on one source) model-inputs basis
Dividend yield ($0.25 quarterly) 6.1% n/a (unverified) HST 3.8% · DRH 3.2% · XHR 2.9% · PEB 0.2% stockanalysis.com, 2026-10-23

Model-implied value range (from model-summary.json; reit module, NAV at a cap rate on Hotel Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO/share DCF with a terminal P/AFFO, midpoints): Bear $11.07 · Base $16.53 · Bull $22.24 per share, i.e. implied returns of −32.3% / +1.1% / +36.0% vs $16.35. These ranges show how the bull and bear drivers translate into value; they are not price targets.

Balance sheet:

Model note: tier full, status built, verification verified (1,988 formula cells matched in LibreOffice). No assumptions without basis. Scenario consistency is OK on all 14 rows.

Relative value vs peers
MetricPKHSTPEBDRHXHRPeer medianvs median
P/E (forward)30.8x24.6xn/a21.9x45.9x24.6x+25%
EV/EBITDA (TTM)11.2x12.3x13.8x13.1x13.3x13.2x−15%
EV/Sales2.8x3.4x3.0x3.5x2.9x3.2x−12%
P/B1.1x2.6x0.9x1.9x1.6x1.7x−38%
FCF yield2.5%5.9%8.9%5.8%6.0%6.0%−3.5pp
Dividend yield6.1%3.8%0.2%3.2%2.9%3.0%+3.1pp
P/E (forward)XHR45.9xPK30.8xHST24.6xDRH21.9x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)PEB13.8xXHR13.3xDRH13.1xHST12.3xPK11.2x
EV/SalesDRH3.5xHST3.4xPEB3.0xXHR2.9xPK2.8x
P/BHST2.6xDRH1.9xXHR1.6xPK1.1xPEB0.9x
FCF yieldPEB8.9%XHR6.0%HST5.9%DRH5.8%PK2.5%
Dividend yieldPK6.1%HST3.8%DRH3.2%XHR2.9%PEB0.2%

As of 2026-10-23. One source and one definition for every company: aggregator TTM multiples, consolidated lease-inclusive EV. Not the model's own EV basis (see the report's valuation table). Quotes taken at the 4:00 PM ET close on 2026-10-23; pages fetched 2026-10-25. Dashed line = peer median. Source: stockanalysis.com /stocks/<ticker>/statistics/, fetched 2026-10-25.

Notes. PEB shows no forward P/E on the source (net loss). Forward P/E on depreciation-heavy REIT earnings is a weak measure; P/FFO is shown on the source only for HST (11.70x) and XHR (11.78x), so it is left out of the chart. No credible multi-year growth estimate on the source for any company; omitted.

Scenario stress test

Reasoned from the bull/bear drivers above. The model column comes from the scenario overlays (Base case + shock).

Scenario Effect Mechanism Magnitude Model Δ value vs Base ($/sh)
S1 Fast equity crash − Beta-1.37 small-cap lodging de-rates; private values barely move Med −$1.20
S2 Slow bear / recession − Groups cancel, transient and leisure fall together on a high fixed-cost base; same order as Base − Bear ($5.47) High −$5.19
S3 Rapid rate shock − Cap rates track real yields; ~$1.7bn variable debt and 2028 notes reprice Med −$2.74
S4 Slow rate grind − Refinancing drag across 2027–2030 maturities Med −$1.59
S5 Soft-landing cuts + Lower variable interest and cap rates with demand intact High +$3.06
S6 Recession-driven cuts − Rate relief does not offset a lodging earnings recession High −$3.24
S7a Credit liquidity shock − Levered small-cap REIT selling; disposition market shuts Med −$1.53
S7b Slow default cycle − Corporate group softens; spreads widen on a ~6x credit Med −$1.43
S8 Stagflation − Daily rate resets lag union labor and insurance costs; travel slows Med −$2.57
S9a Dollar spike − Fewer inbound visitors to Waikiki and New York; Americans travel abroad Low −$0.43
S9b Dollar slide + Inverse of S9a Low +$0.43
S10 Melt-up + Wealth effect lifts luxury leisure and group; multiples expand Med +$1.58
S11 Energy supply shock − Airfares hit fly-to resorts (Hawaii, Orlando, Key West) and travel budgets Med −$1.39
S12 Mega-cap/AI derating − Mild trim to tech and finance corporate travel; little direct exposure Low −$0.54

Currently active/on watch per the playbook:

Model value change vs Base, by scenario
S2 Slow bear / recession−$5.19S6 Recession-driven cuts−$3.24S3 Rapid rate shock−$2.74S8 Stagflation−$2.57S4 Slow rate grind−$1.59S7a Credit liquidity shock−$1.53S7b Slow default cycle−$1.43S11 Energy supply shock−$1.39S1 Fast equity crash−$1.20S12 Mega-cap/AI derating−$0.54S9a Dollar spike−$0.43S9b Dollar slide+$0.43S10 Melt-up+$1.58S5 Soft-landing cuts+$3.06

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